Winners and Losers from the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership

01/01/2019

Time: 2018

Authors: Hiro Lee (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University) and Ken Itakura (Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya City University).

The objectives of this paper are to estimate economic welfare effects of alternative sequencings of mega-regional trade agreements (MRTAs) for the Asia-Pacific countries and to evaluate the extent of losses to the United States from its withdrawal from the TPP using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We offer two plausible sequencings of MRTAs in the Asia-Pacific. The first is the implementation of the 16- member RCEP, followed by RCEP + Taiwan and an FTAAP. The second is the implementation of CPTPP, followed by an enlarged CPTPP and an FTAAP. In addition, a hypothetical scenario in which the implementation of the original TPP including the United States as a member is considered for a comparison.

The paper can be downloaded here,.