Thailand is not ready for the CPTPP

In the foreseeable future, Thailand will be shying away from the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The country lacks necessary preparedness and consensus for the high-end free-trade arrangement. It still needs to modernise the tax system and enact new legislature to catch up with global trading rules. In addition, without any reconciliation of existing polarised views between the governmental agencies, private sector and civil society organisations, any attempt to enter the CPTPP's negotiation process now would be futile. It could also drive a further wedge into society, especially at this juncture.

The Prayut Chan-o-cha government has expressed a strong desire to join the CPTPP this autumn with the hope that the country would be able to negotiate the terms and other conditions as soon as possible with the CPTPP members. But that hope was dashed because Thailand did not file the application during the recent CPTPP Commission meeting on Aug 5, in Mexico.

For the past two years, the Ministry of Commerce reiterated that joining the CPTPP is a must if Thailand wants to compete regionally and internationally because it would boost the country's economic performance and draw in potential investors. In addition, with the damage caused by Covid-19 and its long-term impact, the CPTPP could be one of the cures.

To engage all stakeholders within the country, the cabinet agreed in May to have parliament to set up three subcommittees to look into the cost and benefits of joining the CPTPP related to agriculture and seeds; the economy, trade and investment; and the public health sector. They were supposed to submit their studies early last month, but they asked for another 60-day extension. The new deadline is in early September.

It is highly unlikely that the three subcommittees will come up with any recommendation regarding whether Thailand should join the CPTPP. Their studies will focus on the positive and negative impacts of the CPTPP on the country's economic future. Each sub-committee has identified common and divergent points, and forming a broad consensus still looks a tall order.

Source: Bangkok Post