The global trading system, preparing to close one of the most transformative years in decades, heads into the next year with a host of new challenges to stability and growth.

Despite US President Donald Trump's erection of a "tariff wall" around the world's largest economy , global goods trade in 2025 is expected to remain resilient. According to data cited by veteran shipping expert John McCown, global container volumes in October 2025 increased by 2.1% year-on-year. However, behind this relatively positive overall picture lie significant shifts in trade flows. Container imports into the US decreased by 8%, while Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and India recorded strong growth.

“The global container supply chain has begun to adapt and restructure its trade patterns,” McCown noted in his December 22 report. After the U.S. recorded a 15.2% increase in container imports in 2024, “it is undeniable that the total volume in 2025 will move in the complete opposite direction.” According to McCown, President Trump’s tariff threats are one of the main reasons driving this reshaping. If 2025 is “the year of tariffs,” then 2026 will be “the year of the consequences of tariffs.”

Many experts predict that global trade will continue to face instability next year, with four major issues standing out. First, the US, Canada, and Mexico are about to begin reviewing the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which came into effect in 2020. While many support extending the USMCA, most stakeholders are also calling for improvements to the agreement's content. However, any adjustments that benefit one member country could disadvantage another, increasing the risk of tension in negotiations, especially as Canada and Mexico are already under pressure from US import tariffs.

The second issue is the risk of disruption to the shipping chain. According to experts, the global supply chain in the coming year could be affected by two potential shocks. First, the possibility of container shipping routes returning to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, after Houthi attacks subside. This could lead to a sudden increase in shipping capacity, resulting in severe congestion at European ports. Second, the risk of a surge in shipping demand if the US economy accelerates sharply in 2026, triggering a wave of restocking that exceeds the shipping industry's capacity.

The third problem is the lack of sustainable trade agreements. While the White House touts trade deals reached in 2025 as major achievements, most of these are not legally binding and are merely short-term "truces," particularly in relations with China. Meanwhile, US negotiations with the European Union and India remain stalled.

Finally, another major unknown is the upcoming ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court on the legality of the retaliatory tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump. If the administration loses the case, the question arises whether the U.S. will have to repay tens of billions of dollars in tariffs already collected – a scenario that is considered highly complex administratively.

According to market predictions, the probability of Trump losing the lawsuit is as high as 75%, meaning the administration may have to look for other tools to continue its tariff policy.

Source: Tin Tuc News

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