The US imposing a temporary import tariff of 15% (from February 24 to July 2026) is causing disruptions to the investment environment, supply chains, and production and export activities, including those in Viet Nam.

Many risks of being subjected to high taxes.

The US has imposed a temporary 10% import tariff on a wide range of goods under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective from February 24, 2026 to July 24, 2026, with a potential maximum of 15%. This is a transitional period and does not mean policy stability. The risk of tariff adjustments or a shift to permanent measures remains. Many experts believe that businesses need to closely monitor developments and prepare for scenarios after 150 days, especially export industries heavily dependent on the US market, in order to minimize order disruptions and negative impacts on production and exports.

Ms. Cao Thi Phi Van, Deputy Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Trade and Investment Promotion Center (ITPC), commented that the temporary nature of the deadline "does not equate to policy stability"; what businesses need to do immediately is closely monitor developments and prepare scenarios for the period after the July 2026 deadline. 

Viet Nam's export sectors with low profit margins, such as textiles, footwear, and seafood, will face more direct pressure because their capacity to absorb an additional 10% in costs is very limited.

Speaking at the seminar "Solutions to Respond to the US's 150-Day Temporary Tariff Policy," organized by ITPC, VCCI-HCM, and the Viet Nam Institute for Economic Initiatives on March 25, 2026, in Ho Chi Minh City, Professor Tran Ngoc Anh, an economist from Indiana University, stated that the 150-day period is merely a "stepping stone" following the US Supreme Court's ruling on February 20, 2026, that the IEEPA does not grant the President the authority to impose tariffs. Immediately after that ruling, the US administration moved to Section 122 to maintain tariff barriers in the short term, before considering more structured and longer-term tools such as Section 301 or Section 232. The biggest risk lies not in the current 150 days, but in the possibility that businesses might mistakenly perceive this as a short-term wave, when in reality it could very well be the beginning of a new tightening cycle.

From a practical export perspective, industries with low profit margins, such as textiles, footwear, and seafood, will face more direct pressure because their capacity to absorb an additional 10% in costs is very limited. Conversely, high value-added goods or those with remaining price negotiation potential will withstand the pressure better. Products such as electronics, electrical equipment, and machinery are subject to the Vietnamese method of determining taxable value and value-added ratios, and face the risk of anti-dumping investigations. When tariff barriers appear, trade records and supply chain transparency become the first line of defense.

Restructuring to reduce risk

Experts also suggest that, to minimize risks, businesses should prioritize reviewing contracts, selling prices, and delivery terms. Dr. Huynh The Du, from the University of Wisconsin Oshkosh, emphasized that businesses must urgently renegotiate Incoterms terms, tax cost-sharing mechanisms, and price adjustments with their US partners. "This cannot be delayed, because if it is not addressed from the contract stage, the entire tax pressure will fall on Vietnamese exporters," Dr. Du asserted. In international trade, a new tax rate not only increases the price of goods but also changes the way risk is distributed among sellers, buyers, banks, shipping companies, and even input suppliers. 

Goods exported to the US must have traceable origins, demonstrate that the value creation process took place in Viet Nam, and be prepared to present documentation upon inspection.

Furthermore, businesses need to standardize origin documentation and supply chain management according to verifiable standards. The US is cracking down more on origin evasion and illegal transshipment. Once the "Made in Viet Nam" image is damaged, the losses will not be limited to a single shipment or business, but could spread to become a national risk in subsequent investigations. Therefore, businesses cannot continue to manage with a "nearly complete documentation" approach; they must control the Bill of Materials, trace the source of raw materials, demonstrate the value creation process in Viet Nam, and be prepared to present documentation when inspected. This is a management challenge, not just a simple administrative procedure.

Businesses also need to take advantage of the remaining "policy window." According to Professor Tran Ngoc Anh's analysis, the effective tariff rate at US ports for Vietnamese goods has temporarily decreased after the IEEPA mechanism was deactivated and Section 122 was applied as a replacement, creating a more favorable period for businesses to expedite deliveries, handle inventory, and capitalize on the front-loading trend from US importers. However, taking advantage of this opportunity does not mean selling at any cost; on the contrary, businesses must choose the right products, the right orders, and the right trading partners, because any hasty decisions within these 150 days could have consequences lasting longer than 150 days.

Alongside these solutions, export companies also need to prepare financial scenarios for worse-case situations. Section 122 allows for surcharges of up to 15%, while scenarios after July 24, 2026, may shift to stricter tools. This requires businesses to recalculate profit margins, cash flow, inventory, working capital needs, and even the resilience of each market. Businesses that still operate based on intuition and fragmented spreadsheets will struggle to survive in a trade environment that is shifting from stability to scenario-driven. Experts recommend that businesses quickly adopt global trade management systems, digitize records, and increase supply chain transparency—not just a long-term goal, but an immediate requirement.

Most importantly, Viet Nam must respond with strategic thinking rather than reactive measures. When an export-dependent economy faces tariff fluctuations from its largest market, the answer cannot simply be to counteract short-term policies. The answer must be to diversify markets, diversify supply chains, increase localization rates, enhance compliance capabilities, and build a new negotiating position. 

Source: VTV

• USTR Makes Findings and Proposes Action in 60 Section 301 Investigations Relating to Failures to Take Action on Trade in Forced Labor Goods
• [VCCI] The US officially initiates a Section 301 Investigation into Vietnam on Intellectual property
• General Secretary and President To Lam's working visit to three ASEAN countries: Demonstrating the stature of proactive and constructive diplomacy.
• Viet Nam accelerates innovation drive as skilled workforce becomes key to science and technology growth
• The US is increasing controls on AI chip exports