In the first five months of 2026, import and export turnover exceeded US$445 billion, a 25% increase compared to the same period last year, indicating that trade activities continue to maintain strong growth momentum. Although the trade balance shifted to a deficit of US$13.8 billion, this is not yet a worrying sign as the increase in imports mainly comes from raw materials, machinery, and energy for production.

Exports and imports increased sharply, leading to a growing trade deficit.

According to data from the General Statistics Office ( Ministry of Finance ), Viet Nam's total import and export turnover in May 2026 reached US$99.07 billion, an increase of 3.2% compared to the previous month and an increase of 25.8% compared to the same period in 2025.

In the first five months of the year, total import and export turnover reached US$445.12 billion, an increase of 25% compared to the same period last year. Of this, exports reached US$215.66 billion, an increase of 19.5%; and imports reached US$229.46 billion, a significant increase of 30.8%.

Notably, the significantly higher increase in imports compared to exports has shifted the merchandise trade balance to a trade deficit. In May alone, Viet Nam recorded a trade deficit of $5.21 billion. For the first five months of the year, the trade deficit reached $13.8 billion, compared to a trade surplus of $5.1 billion during the same period last year.

This is the first time since the 2016-2025 period that Viet Nam's merchandise trade balance has returned to a trade deficit. This development is noteworthy because for many years, a trade surplus has always been considered one of the bright spots of the economy .

Looking at the business sectors, the domestic economy continued to have a large trade deficit of $20.76 billion, while the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector, including crude oil, recorded a trade surplus of $6.96 billion. This shows that the FDI sector still plays a leading role in Viet Nam's export activities.

In terms of export structure, the FDI sector accounted for 79.8% of total export turnover with $172.16 billion, an increase of 24.7% compared to the same period. Meanwhile, the domestic economic sector reached $43.5 billion, an increase of 2.5% and accounted for more than 20% of total export turnover.

Conversely, imports increased sharply in both sectors. The domestic sector imported $64.26 billion, up 22.7%; the FDI sector imported $165.2 billion, up 34.3%.

According to the General Statistics Office, in terms of the structure of import groups in the first five months of 2026, the group of production materials reached US$215.99 billion, accounting for 94.1%. This trend shows that production activities, especially in the manufacturing and processing industry and FDI enterprises, have a very large demand for raw materials, components, machinery, and equipment for production.

Capital flows into raw materials and machinery.

Explaining the reason for the shift in the trade balance to a deficit, Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ), said that this is the result of many factors acting simultaneously from both outside and inside the country.

According to Mr. Hai, conflicts in the Middle East have disrupted global supply chains, driving up energy prices and increasing the value of energy imports. Rising oil prices have led to sharp increases in the prices of many input materials such as chemicals, plastics, and iron and steel, significantly increasing Viet Nam's import value for these goods.

In addition, FDI enterprises, especially in the electronics and computer components sector, have stepped up imports of raw materials and components for production, as well as proactively stockpiling inventory in anticipation of further price increases in the coming period.

Furthermore, the positive disbursement of FDI capital and the demand for investment in digital transformation and science and technology have boosted the import of high-tech machinery, equipment, and components. This is a high-value product group that contributes significantly to the overall import increase.

Meanwhile, many key export sectors such as textiles, footwear, wood, agricultural products, and seafood continue to grow but face considerable difficulties due to the slow recovery of global consumer demand, ongoing global economic instability, and pressure from rising logistics and insurance costs.

Sharing this perspective, economist and PhD Nguyen Minh Phong believes that the current trade deficit is not yet a cause for concern. According to him, the main reason stems from businesses increasing imports of gasoline, raw materials, machinery, and components to serve production and proactively stockpile supplies for the entire year amidst volatile global markets.

"This reflects the continued demand for production and exports. Businesses are preparing resources for upcoming orders. If imported goods are put into production and generate export value in the final months of the year, the trade balance could certainly improve," Mr. Phong commented.

However, this expert also recommends that businesses proactively respond to fluctuations in the global economy by maintaining relationships with traditional partners, protecting market share in key export markets, and improving their ability to meet new requirements regarding technical standards, environmental standards, and traceability.

Furthermore, diversifying export markets and avoiding over-reliance on a few specific markets is also considered an important solution to mitigate risks from global trade fluctuations and maintain export growth momentum amidst increasingly fierce international competition.

Commenting on the situation for the remaining seven months of the year, Mr. Tran Thanh Hai stated that import and export activities will continue to be affected by global economic developments, energy prices, geopolitical situations, and the increasing trend of trade protection measures. In particular, the outcome of trade negotiations between major economies, including the tariff negotiations with the US, will significantly impact Viet Nam's export prospects.

Source: Vietnam.vn

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