The twelve countries negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement will be extending their talks into 2014, ministers announced on Tuesday, despite having achieved “substantial progress” during an intensive series of talks in Singapore.

The 12-country group had previously set the end of 2013 as its target date for concluding the talks, and had held to that objective throughout the year, while giving informal indications that the negotiations could last longer if the substance demanded it.

After a four-day meeting this week in the Asian city-state, reports have indicated that members are indeed very close to inking an agreement, with many speculating that an announcement could come in the early months of the new year. Ministers will next meet in January following additional work by negotiators, they said, without giving an exact date or location for these talks.

Ministers did confirm on Tuesday that they were able to identify potential “landing zones” for the parts of the text that are not yet closed. These, along with market access issues, will be the focus of their upcoming work, they said in a brief statement.

The twelve members of the TPP are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the US, and Vietnam – a group whose combined GDP amounted to US$28.1 trillion last year. The deal, if completed, would cover a market of 793 million consumers.

Bali momentum?

The meeting in Singapore came on the heels of the WTO’s Ninth Ministerial Conference in Bali, which concluded its meetings on Saturday morning with the news that the 159-member global trade body had adopted its first global trade deal in nearly two decades. (For more on the WTO meeting, see related story, this issue)

Many observers had speculated that some of the momentum from the WTO gathering could carry over to the talks in Singapore, particularly since TPP ministers also had the chance to meet bilaterally on the Bali conference sidelines.

Trade analysts have also been watching the TPP talks closely, along with the advances being made in another new “mega-regional,” the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership recently launched by the US and the EU. Observers say that the developments seen in these agreements could have the potential to advance trade rule-making, which could in turn spark progress back at the WTO.

However, some critics have argued that these deals could instead detract from the focus to conclude the WTO’s Doha Round, and could leave smaller economies on the sidelines.

The TPP talks also continue to face intense scrutiny by the public, with activists raising questions on various points, such as the proposed intellectual property provisions of the pact. The release this week of additional “leaked” documents pertaining to the talks have only served to fuel the ongoing debate. The documents, which were published by the Huffington Post and anti-secrecy website Wikileaks, purport to outline members’ various negotiating positions, though their authenticity has not been verified.

US-Japan dynamic

Much of the focus in recent weeks has also been on whether the US and Japan – the two largest economies participating in the TPP – can resolve their own set of issues. When Washington signed off on Tokyo’s joining the talks, it was with the understanding that both sides would also hold bilateral negotiations in parallel on certain subjects, with the outcome being folded into the TPP final agreement. (See Bridges Weekly, 18 April 2013)

TPP members earlier this year had praised Japan for appearing willing to put as much as possible on the table, with New Zealand Trade Minister Tim Groser commending Tokyo’s “determination to be bold.” (See Bridges Weekly, 10 October 2013)

Since then, the question over whether Japan will actually be able to agree on full tariff elimination on certain agricultural products – rice, beef and pork, wheat, sugar, and dairy – that are “sacred” to the Asian island country has been a key area of focus for negotiators.

Tokyo, for its part, has stressed in recent weeks that it has limited flexibility in this area, pushing instead to maintain some existing protections on those goods.

“On our side, there are certain things that we cannot compromise on due to parliamentary resolution,” Yasutoshi Nishimura, Japanese Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs, told reporters late on Monday, according to the Wall Street Journal. “We have explained this many times to the US and have asked for their flexibility.”

US officials, for their part, have urged Tokyo to yield more ground. Automobiles are another long-standing issue for the two trading partners, with Tokyo reportedly pushing Washington to lift its import tariffs on cars early on.

South Korea on the way?

South Korea has also expressed interest in recent weeks in becoming a TPP member, though whether it will be able to join the pact before or after a deal is signed is unclear. TPP members have generally welcomed the Asian economy’s interest in the talks, while qualifying that Seoul will only be invited to join if all current members agree.

“As with previous prospective members, these consultations will focus on Korea’s readiness to meet high standards across the TPP, as well as to address outstanding bilateral issues of concern including full implementation of existing obligations,” US Trade Representative Mike Froman said in November.

Source: Tralac.org

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