Vietnam's rice exports are forecast to reach 7,5 million tonnes this year, down from a record 9,04 million tonnes last year, said Nguyen Ngoc Nam, chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA)

Rice exports in 2024 continue to set records, helping Vietnam maintain its position in the top 3 largest rice exporting countries. worldAccording to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in 2024, Vietnam exported 9,18 million tons of rice, earning 5,75 billion USD. Compared to 2023, although the export volume only increased by about 13%, the turnover increased by 23% thanks to the sharp increase in rice export prices.

Mr. Tran Thanh Hai - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department - Ministry of Industry and Trade informed that rice exports in 2024 reached a record thanks in part to higher unit prices than previous years. Vietnamese rice reached an average export unit price of 627 USD/ton (previously under 600 USD/ton), an increase of about 9% compared to 2023.

Vietnamese rice has been exported to about 150 countries and territories around the world. Enterprises have also taken advantage of market opportunities from new generation free trade agreements. In addition to traditional markets such as China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc.

After reaching a record high in 2024, Vietnam's rice exports in 2025 are likely to decrease in both volume and price compared to 2024. The reason is weakening demand while competition increases among producing countries.

As of the first half of January 1, Vietnam's rice export prices have dropped sharply to their lowest level in more than two years due to weak demand. Export rice prices are stable compared to the end of the week. According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), currently 2025% broken rice is priced at 5 USD/ton; 419% broken rice is priced at 25 USD/ton; 395% broken rice is priced at 100 USD/ton. However, compared to the beginning of last week, Vietnam's rice export prices are still on a downward trend. At the beginning of last week, our 326% broken rice was offered at 5 USD/ton, down from 422 USD/ton a week earlier.

While Indian rice prices are near an 18-month low and Thai prices are at their lowest since April 4.

According to information from businesses, there is very little room for rice exports in 2025 in the context that the base level for 2024 is already high while there are too many unfavorable factors related to the market, especially when India loosens its rice export restrictions.

Over the past two years, India’s inventories have been large because it has tightened its rice exports globally. Therefore, in the coming time, when this country relaxes its rice export restrictions, it will put pressure on other exporting countries, including Vietnam. Moreover, before the harvest season, Vietnamese rice prices are relatively high, so many importers have shifted to other countries to buy goods earlier.

In 2025, rice prices may be lower than in 2023-2024 and possibly lower than in 2022 or just slightly higher. At the end of the calendar year, many major rice-growing countries have entered the harvest season, including Vietnam, which is entering the winter-spring harvest, causing Vietnamese rice prices to drop rapidly.

In the Philippines, the government has tightened the rice price issue in recent days, so ministries and sectors are intensifying market review. Importers are also cautious, and at the same time, importers are in no hurry to sign contracts with Vietnam because they have many new sources. Therefore, there are not many year-end rice orders signed for delivery at the beginning of this year.

Economic experts believe that adverse fluctuations in rice prices will not cause major damage, especially when export enterprises and relevant agencies proactively take measures to stabilize and reasonably purchase and reserve rice and raw materials from the people.

Enterprises recommend that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the State Bank have a credit policy. In particular, how to provide credit sources to support enterprises in the process of purchasing rice from farmers. This is direct support for farmers, indirectly through enterprises. Enterprises also believe that rice importers in traditional markets will soon sign contracts again. Because along with the advantage of convenient transportation and trading, delicious and high-quality rice, and reasonable competitive prices, it will help Vietnamese rice maintain its position in the market.

Source: Vietnam.vn
 

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