Domestic coffee dropped sharply after 4 consecutive weeks of increase?

It is forecasted that coffee prices on June 17, 6 in the domestic market will cool down and decrease sharply after 2024 consecutive weeks of increase. The decline in coffee this week is the expected result of the previous strong increase. Despite unfavorable technical indicators, coffee has still increased strongly in recent times.

Coffee prices plummeted at the weekend, not without negative information about the political situation in the world. In particular, the USD exchange rate has increased to its highest level in nearly 7 weeks, making coffee less attractive. Currently, the DXY index measuring greenback fluctuations with 6 major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF) has increased to 105,52. The dollar anchored high as traders bet on the Fed only cutting interest rates once this year.

In addition, according to experts, coffee prices are also being pressured because the harvest in Brazil is progressing more smoothly and faster.

With forecasts that Robusta supply from Vietnam will continue to be scarce in the near future, hedge funds have increased their net buying positions. Information from Volcafe, our country's Robusta production in the 2024/25 crop year is estimated to reach 24 million bags - the lowest in 13 years, due to unfavorable weather.

Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on June 16, 6 as follows, according to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices today decreased slightly in the range of 2024-119.000 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 120.200 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 120.100 VND/kg.

Specifically, the price of coffee purchased in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 120.000 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 119.900 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 120.000 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 120.200 VND/kg.

Price of green coffee beans (green coffee, fresh green coffee) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at a price of 119.000 VND/kg.

Coffee price today (March 16) in Dak Lak province; In Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 6 VND/kg, while in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town is purchased at the same rate of 120.000 VND/kg.

Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for delivery in July 7 on the London floor is at 2024 USD/ton, down 4.115 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. Delivery term in September 106 is 9 USD/ton, down 2024 USD; Delivery term in November 4.009 is 84 USD/ton, down 11 USD and delivery term in January 2024 is 3.867 USD/ton, down 67 USD.

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:30 p.m. on June 15, 6 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 - 221.95 cents/lb.

Specifically, the delivery term in July 7 is 2024 cents/lb; down 224.15 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. September 1.90 delivery is 9 cents/lb, down 2024 cents/lb; Delivery in December 224.40 is 1.85 cents/lb, down 12 cents/lb and delivery in March 2024 is 223.20 cents/lb, down 1.80 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices on the morning of June 16, 6 decreased slightly. Specifically, the delivery term in July 2024 is 7 USD/ton (down 2024%); September 281.05 delivery period is 2.50 USD/ton (up 9%); Delivery in December 2024 is 275.90 USD/ton (down 0.15%) and delivery in March 12 is 2024 USD/ton (down 270.20%).

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the Brazilian B3 floor, it will be open from 19:00 - 02:35 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Currently, the favorable crop in Brazil, increased inventory on the floor, and speculative overbuying on the floor are factors that are holding back the rise of coffee.

On the contrary, increased coffee demand and transportation costs, along with concerns about a decline in coffee output in the upcoming crop in Vietnam, are factors supporting the increase.

According to a report by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), in Asia and Oceania, in April, the region's coffee exports continued to decrease by 4% to 0,3 million bags.

Once again, the general trend of the region is determined by Vietnam, the largest coffee producer and exporter in Asia and Oceania, recording a 6,9% decrease in exports in April. Thus , Vietnam's coffee exports decreased in the first 4/5 months of the 7-2023 crop year and marked the country's third consecutive month of decline.

According to ICO's explanation, Vietnam's exports decreased because of high export volume in the 2022-2023 coffee crop year and a year outside the bi-annual production cycle. However, exports in April were still lower than the average of 4 million bags in the same period over the past three years.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on locality.

Source: Vietnam.vn