Rubber exports are projected to continue facing downward pressure in the coming period

Rubber exports will continue to face downward pressure in the coming period, amid signs of slowing global rubber consumption as projected by ANRPC

According to data from the Customs Department, Viet Nam's rubber exports in November 2025 reached 189,466 tons, worth nearly $323 million, an increase of 5.4% in volume and 5.9% in value compared to the previous month. However, compared to the same period last year, exports continued to decrease by 17.8% in volume and 26.9% in value, marking the third consecutive month of decline compared to the same period last year.

Cumulatively in the first 11 months of 2025, Viet Nam's rubber exports reached 1.66 million tons, worth 2.9 billion USD, a decrease of 6.3% in volume and 1.9% in value compared to the same period in 2024.

The average export price of rubber in November 2025 reached US$1,702 per ton, a slight increase of 0.5% compared to the previous month, but a decrease of 11% compared to November 2024. However, for the first 11 months of 2025, the average export price of rubber still increased by 4.7% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching US$1,752 per ton.

Xu hướng đa dạng hóa nguồn cung, gia tăng nhập khẩu từ nhiều thị trường khác nhau của Trung Quốc sẽ làm gia tăng áp lực đối với hoạt động xuất khẩu cao su của Việt Nam trong thời gian tới. Ảnh: NNMT.
China's trend of diversifying its supply sources and increasing imports from various markets will put increased pressure on Viet Nam's rubber exports in the coming period. Photo: NNMT .

Regarding export markets, in the first 11 months of 2025, China remained Viet Nam's largest rubber export market, accounting for 73.4% of the total with a volume of nearly 1.22 million tons, valued at US$2.11 billion. Compared to the same period in 2024, the volume decreased by 2.9%, but the value increased by 2%. The average export price of rubber to this market reached US$1,877 per ton, an increase of 9.2% compared to the same period in 2024.

Exports to India, the second-largest consumer market, fell sharply in the first 11 months of 2025, decreasing by 39.7% in volume and 34.1% in value compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 70,724 tons, worth $132.77 million.

Furthermore, rubber exports to the United States, Germany, Russia, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, and other markets also decreased. Conversely, rubber exports to Malaysia and Indonesia became a bright spot, with export volumes reaching 45,656 tons and 43,621 tons respectively, a sharp increase of 53.4% ​​and 99.2% compared to the same period in 2024. This placed Malaysia and Indonesia in third and fourth positions as Viet Nam's largest rubber export markets in the first 11 months of 2025.

However, the Viet Nam Rubber Association (VRA) stated that the export value of rubber in the first 11 months of 2025, reaching US$2.9 billion and estimated at approximately US$3.2 billion for the whole year, only reflects the export of natural rubber latex. If all product groups in the rubber industry value chain are included, including deeply processed rubber products (tires, gloves, technical components, etc.) and rubber wood, the total export value of the entire industry in 2025 is estimated to reach approximately US$11 billion, an increase of about 3% compared to 2024.

Forecasts indicate that rubber exports will continue to face downward pressure in the coming period, as global rubber consumption is showing signs of slowing down, as anticipated by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC).

In China, the largest rubber consumer market, sales of automobiles – the sector that uses the most rubber – are weakening. At the same time, China's trend towards diversifying its supply sources and increasing imports from various markets is also putting increased pressure on Viet Nam's rubber exports.

Source: Agriculture and Environment News