Leveraging FTAs to expand and diversify rice export markets

Amidst volatile global rice markets driven by geopolitical conflicts, increased global supply, and growing competition, Viet Nam's rice industry faces the urgent need to adjust its strategy towards market diversification, improved quality, and increased product value.

Conflicts in the Middle East occurred precisely when the winter-spring rice crop in the Mekong Delta was entering its peak harvest season, causing significant difficulties in the consumer market. Simultaneously, abundant supply from major exporting countries such as India and Thailand put pressure on domestic rice prices, leading to a downward trend and directly impacting farmers' incomes.

According to the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection, the 2025-2026 Winter-Spring crop in the Mekong Delta is expected to yield nearly 11 million tons of paddy rice, with approximately 5.5 million tons harvested in March alone – the peak harvesting season. In 2026, the total amount of paddy rice for export is projected to reach approximately 15.46 million tons, equivalent to 7.73 million tons of milled rice. This large supply, coupled with market fluctuations, has placed considerable pressure on consumption and export activities.

In reality, Viet Nam's rice exports in the first months of 2026 maintained growth in volume but decreased in value. Mr. Nguyen Anh Son, Director of the Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ), stated that by mid-March 2026, rice exports reached approximately 1.74 million tons, with a value exceeding US$826 million, an increase of 2.3% in volume but a decrease of 8.7% in value compared to the same period last year. The average export price decreased by 10.7%, to US$477.6 per ton, clearly reflecting the competitive pressure in the international market.

The market structure also shows a clear differentiation. The Philippines continues to be the largest market, accounting for over 55% of total exports and maintaining growth. Meanwhile, China, Malaysia, and Australia recorded positive growth, while some African markets experienced significant declines.

Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Viet Nam Food Association (VFA), noted that global rice demand remains high but is strongly differentiated across regions. To capitalize on opportunities, the rice industry needs to diversify markets, improve product quality, strengthen trade promotion, and manage exports flexibly.

In fact, China is becoming one of the bright spots in the Asian regional rice trade. After a period of decline, import demand in this market recovered strongly in 2025, reaching approximately 3 million tons. Viet Nam is currently the second largest supplier to China with about 700,000 tons, more than double the amount from the previous year.

However, this is also a highly competitive market with rapidly fluctuating prices. Therefore, businesses need to proactively monitor market developments closely, flexibly adjust pricing policies, and continuously improve product quality to maintain market share.

Besides traditional markets, Japan and South Korea are emerging as potential destinations for high-quality Vietnamese rice. The first shipments of rice bearing the "Vietnamese Green Low-Emission Rice" label have been successfully exported to Japan, marking an important step in brand building and accessing high-end markets.

Simultaneously, the African region continues to be considered a potential market in the strategy of diversifying export outlets. According to the Viet Nam Trade Office in Algeria, which also covers Senegal, this country imports approximately 1 million tons of rice annually, mainly inexpensive broken rice. In 2025, Viet Nam's rice exports to Senegal are expected to reach over 168,000 tons, worth $52.57 million, an increase of nearly 30 times compared to the previous year.

Notably, during the official visit of National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Manh to Senegal in July 2025, the two countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding on rice trade, under which Viet Nam will promote the export of approximately 100,000 tons of rice annually to this market. This agreement not only contributes to ensuring food security for Senegal but also opens up opportunities to expand the African market and diversify outlets for Vietnamese rice.

However, the outlook for rice exports in 2026 is projected to face more challenges as global supply becomes abundant again. The Viet Nam Food Association predicts that export volume may only remain around 7 million tons, instead of experiencing strong growth as in previous years. 

In this context, solutions for managing and supporting businesses are being implemented synchronously. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has directed its functional units and the system of Vietnamese trade offices abroad to closely monitor the supply and demand situation, prices, and import policies in key markets; promptly provide information, warn of risks, and support businesses in handling issues arising during transactions.

The Trade Promotion Agency is also stepping up its efforts to promote and introduce Vietnamese rice products to the international market, while simultaneously implementing diverse promotional programs, combining direct and online approaches to expand market access.

Furthermore, effectively utilizing free trade agreements (FTAs) is identified as one of the key solutions for expanding markets, especially by adding rice to the roadmap for supporting businesses in leveraging FTAs; and simultaneously promoting negotiations to expand tariff quotas with partners such as the EU and the United Kingdom.

From a production perspective, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Manh, Deputy Director of the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection, recommended that localities should flexibly adjust planting seasons and proactively manage water resources to control saltwater intrusion and weather risks; and continue to shift the crop structure towards increasing the proportion of high-quality rice, fragrant rice, and specialty rice - which currently account for about 75%.

Furthermore, the implementation of the Project to cultivate 1 million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice linked to green growth is contributing to increasing the value of rice grains by reducing production costs, increasing profits, and meeting the sustainability standards of the international market.

Source: TinTucNews